With the massive influx of candy that has appeared in my house and kids dressed in costumes, it can only mean one thing: the unofficial start of the holiday season is upon us (which is incredibly hard to believe). From Halloween through New Year’s, it feels like time flies with family gatherings, sports, and the excitement of the season. But before we dive headfirst into “the most wonderful time of the year,” let’s take a look at some fun-size pieces of curious market and financial news. Enjoy!
Microsoft says OpenAI lost how much?
Many casual observers may not know that Microsoft owns a substantial stake in the privately held AI startup OpenAI. What’s even more interesting is how Microsoft accounts for that ownership stake, which is effectively a pass-through. Think of it like this: for every dollar OpenAI loses, Microsoft has to report its share of that loss on its own financial statements.
Now this is where the story takes a startling turn. In its earnings report released earlier this week, Microsoft disclosed a surprisingly large $4.1 billion hit from the investment. A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation based on their ownership stake suggests a $12 billion quarterly loss at OpenAI. While the AI darling has been transparent about prioritizing growth over profits, the sheer scale of this loss shocked many. To put it in perspective, OpenAI had stated earlier this year that it expected to generate around $13 billion in revenue for the entire year. The current cash-burn rate, if it were to continue, would imply an annual loss of nearly $50 billion. This is a monumental figure that highlights the astronomical cost of building the future of AI.
NVDA: The king-size candy bar.
If OpenAI’s spending is the trick, then NVIDIA’s stock performance is the ultimate treat. It is the king-size candy bar that every investor wants in their bag. We’ve talked about NVIDIA’s incredible scale before, but its recent acceleration is something to behold. It took the company years to reach its first trillion in market value, but the leap from a $4 trillion to a $5 trillion market cap? That happened in a matter of weeks.
The stock is up about 25% since early September, adding the equivalent of an entire JPMorgan Chase in market value in that short span. This meteoric rise isn’t happening in a vacuum; it’s directly fueled by the capital inferno at places like OpenAI. Every dollar OpenAI loses on building and training its models is, in large part, a dollar of revenue for the chipmaker. NVIDIA’s stock price is a direct reflection of the market’s belief that this level of AI spending is not only sustainable but will continue to grow for years to come.
Fiserv: More Trick Than Treat This Year.
It’s a brutal reminder that not all tech stocks are participating in the AI party. While some companies are enjoying a sugar rush, others are experiencing something far more ghoulish. Case in point: Fiserv (FI), the fintech giant that specializes in payment processing.
The company has had a horrifyingly bad year, but its recent earnings report was a true “jump scare” for investors. The stock plunged a staggering 40% in a single day following the release, a brutal drop for a company of its size. This brought its year-to-date decline to over 60%. In a market where AI-related names seem to defy gravity, Fiserv’s performance is a stark illustration of the deep bifurcation that exists. The story of 2025 has not been about a rising tide lifting all boats, but about a handful of AI-powered mega-yachts leaving everyone else in their wake.
Gold’s Glimmer Takes a Breather.
After an epic and glittering run for most of the year, gold is finally taking a breather. The precious metal, which had soared on the back of persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical turmoil, and a hunger for safe-haven assets, has seen a significant pullback.
Since hitting its all-time highs earlier this year, gold has declined by nearly 10%. This cooling-off period is likely driven by a combination of factors: a stronger U.S. dollar, some profit-taking by traders, and a market that, for the moment, is more focused on the growth story in equities than on seeking shelter. The key question now is whether this is a healthy consolidation before the next leg up or a sign that the rally has run its course. For now, the shine has come off, and gold investors are waiting to see if the recent calm is a trick or a treat.
Not a Foregone Conclusion.
Finally, let’s turn to the wizard behind the curtain, Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter-point at its October meeting, the market has been eagerly pricing in a continued path of easier monetary policy. But in his press conference, Powell delivered a message that was far from a foregone conclusion.
He emphasized that the committee’s policy is not on a preset course. While the recent cut was a response to a softening labor market, he stressed that the fight against inflation is not over and that future decisions will be entirely “data-dependent.” It was a classic Powell two-step, giving the market the cut it wanted while simultaneously pushing back against the assumption that a string of further cuts is guaranteed. He is attempting to navigate the narrow and treacherous path between supporting a fragile labor market and re-igniting inflation, and his comments were a clear warning that the path forward is anything but certain.
Markets / Economy
- Markets, and particularly tech, moved higher this week on the back of strong mega-cap earnings. The S&P finished the week up 0.7%, the Nasdaq was up 2.2%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down -1.4%.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.
Stocks
- U.S. equities were in positive territory. Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the top performers, while Real Estate and Materials lagged. Growth stocks led value stocks, and large caps beat small caps.
- International equities closed lower for the week. Emerging markets fared better than developed markets.
Bonds
- The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased 10 basis points to 4.10% during the week.
- U.S. bond markets were in negative territory this week while International bond markets were positive.
- High-yield bonds led for the week, followed by government bonds and corporate bonds.
