Five weeks ago, we were bombing Iran, and the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% from its highs. Today, we’re still technically at war, gas is pushing $5 a gallon, and the market just hit 7,400. If that doesn’t capture the strange resilience of this economy, I’m not sure what does.
Looking back to March 30, we were still actively engaged with bombing Iran, and there didn’t seem to be an end in sight. The S&P 500 closed the day at 6,344, down almost 10% from its closing high earlier in the year. The next day, though, there were rumblings of a light at the end of the tunnel, as President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “We will be leaving very soon.” This led to the two-week “ceasefire” the following week, which has been continually extended and tenuously maintained, even amid sporadic attacks. It feels like we find ourselves in a familiar spot of modern military engagements, having gone 90% of the way, but unwilling to complete the job.
Despite the ongoing conflict and the continued uncertainty, the market is once again climbing a wall of worry. As of this writing, we’ve just witnessed an incredible stretch, with the S&P 500 sitting at nearly 7,400, up over 16% from the lows just five weeks ago. And while there is plenty to be nervous about, it’s important to remember that the world is still turning. We’re still getting up every day, going to the grocery and the gas station (just paid $5.79 a gallon last night, ouch), and taking our kids to all their sporting events. Or, said another way, the economy (and spending) just keep moving along, almost as if there is nothing else going on.
And on that note, I think it’s important to touch on a major positive piece of news that hasn’t gotten much attention, and perhaps is part of the reason the market continues to move higher, and that is corporate earnings. While we’re not completely through the entire earnings season, we’re far enough along to glean some key insights, and they are quite staggering. First, about 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises (81% beat revenue estimates), exceeding the five-year average by 6 points. Moreover, earnings growth for Q1 2026 is tracking up 27% year-over-year, which would not only be the highest in five years but would also mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. And finally, despite the war and higher oil prices, analysts actually raised their Q2 EPS estimates in April. That matters because in a typical first month of a new quarter, estimates get cut, not raised.
So hopefully that positive earnings news helps to frame some of the market moves we’ve seen. Remember, the market is always forward-looking, which means it’s trying to price in the probability of different scenarios and what they will mean for the economy. Is it always right? Absolutely not. Does it overshoot in both directions? Definitely. So could it be overhyped about current earnings and discounting the possibility of a flare-up with Iran? It certainly could be, but no one knows, so we have to take the good with the bad, and then believe, over the long term, there will be more good.
With that as the backdrop, here are a few other things that caught my eye over the last month. Some are encouraging, some are strange, and a few are just plain fun.
Bigger Bonuses. The average bonus on Wall Street rose 6% in 2025 to a record high of $246,900, topping the previous record of $240,300 set in 2021. That’s a good chunk of change, and almost 3x the median household income in the United States! (Source: New York State Comptroller)
Don’t Bet, Invest. Research finds that less than 5% of online sports gamblers withdraw more money than they deposit over time. Additional studies show that for every dollar spent on sports betting, net investment in stocks and other securities falls by more than two dollars. (Source: Schwab)
Parents Still Paying. A recent Wells Fargo survey of parents with Gen Z children (aged 18 to 28) found that 64% are still supporting their adult kids financially, even though 56% reported that it’s straining their own finances. It goes to show that parents will do almost anything for their kids. (Source: Fortune)
This is Just Odd. The S&P 500 was up 18% in the first 314 trading days of President Trump’s 2nd term (through 4/21). In the first 314 trading days of Trump’s 1st term (Inauguration Day 2017 through 4/21/18), the S&P 500 was up the exact same amount. (Source: Bespoke)
Trillion-Dollar Weight. In Q1, the nine S&P 500 stocks with market caps above $1 trillion declined by an average of 11.2%. All nine trillion-dollar stocks underperformed the S&P 500’s decline of 4.6%, while the remaining 491 stocks averaged a gain of 1.0%. (Source: Bespoke)
Pre-IPO Proxy Mania. The Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX), a closed-end fund touting stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, spiked more than 2,500% in its first four trading days since listing on the NYSE on 3/19, with shares at one point on 3/25 trading more than 30x their net asset value of just under $19/share. (Source: MSN)
Snapback. After falling 10% from its peak to its closing low, it took just 11 trading days for the S&P 500 to recover all those losses. It was the fastest recovery to new 52-week highs after a 5%+ decline in the index’s history. (Source: Bespoke)
Semis Turn 16. On 4/22, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed higher for a record 16 consecutive days, surpassing its previous record of 15 (from 2014). The 38.7% gain during the current winning streak was the largest advance over any 16-day period since October 30, 2002. (Source: Bespoke)
What War? Despite the Middle East conflict being cited “as a major source of uncertainty,” the number of districts reporting increased economic activity in the April release of the Beige Book rose to eight from seven, while the number reporting declining activity fell from five to two. (Source: Federal Reserve)
Summer Cookout: Burgers or Chicken? Ahead of cookout season, burgers are becoming a luxury item due to rising ground beef prices. Retail ground beef jumped $1 per pound in 2025 and now costs $6.74/lb, up 75% from sub-$4 levels prior to COVID. Once the cheaper option, ground beef now costs a record 62% more than chicken breast. (Source: USDA)
More, Not Fewer, Jobs. A survey of 750 CFOs found that AI had little to no negative impact on employment in 2025. It may have actually added jobs. A LinkedIn analysis found that, not including construction-related jobs tied to the data center buildout, AI created 640,000 new roles between 2023 and 2025. (Source: WSJ)
Technology Shrunk the Kids. The days of inflating your stature on the official sports roster are over. Exact height measurements were taken this year to calculate MLB players’ official strike zones for the new Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system. Of the 430 hitters on Opening Day rosters, 225 saw their previously listed height drop by at least 1 inch. (Source: The Athletic)
Two Green Jackets. After winning his first Masters last year, Rory McIlroy won again this year to become just the fourth golfer to win back-to-back Masters, along with Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods. Through this year’s first two rounds, McIlroy held a record six-shot lead even though he ranked 90th out of 91 in fairways hit. (Source: SI.com)
If there’s a thread that runs through all of this, record bonuses, record snapbacks, record earnings, even record-tying Masters performances, it’s that the world rarely does what we expect it to. It would have been easy to start this stretch convinced that a Middle East conflict would derail everything, and instead, we got the fastest recovery to new highs in the index’s history. Corporate America delivered its sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth while the headlines were busy screaming doom and gloom. The market climbed its wall of worry, brick by brick, while most of us were too busy looking at the wall to notice. The lesson, as always, isn’t that the worry was misplaced. Plenty of it was completely valid. The lesson is that long-term progress doesn’t wait for the all-clear signal. It just keeps moving while the headlines argue about whether or not it should.
Finally, I’d like to wish all the wonderful moms out there a very Happy Mother’s Day. We couldn’t do it without you!
Markets / Economy
- Markets just keep moving higher on optimism about the Middle East and strong earnings. The S&P finished the week up 2.3%, the Nasdaq up 4.5%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up 1.7%.
- Job openings in the U.S. fell by 56K to 6.87 million in March, but above market expectations of 6.84 million.
- The U.S. economy added 115K jobs in April, following an upwardly revised 185K increase in March, and way above market forecasts of 62K.
- The unemployment rate held at 4.3% in April, in line with market expectations. However, the number of unemployed rose by 134K to 7.37 million.
Stocks
- U.S. equities were in positive territory. Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the top performers, while Energy and Utilities lagged. Growth stocks led value stocks, and large caps beat small caps.
- International equities closed higher for the week. Emerging markets fared better than developed markets.
Bonds
- The 10-year Treasury bond yield decreased one basis point to 4.38% during the week.
- Global bond markets were in positive territory this week.
- Corporate bonds led for the week, followed by government bonds and high-yield bonds.
