Is this the end, or just the halftime break? On Tuesday evening, less than two hours before a self-imposed deadline to, in his words, obliterate Iran’s “whole civilization,” President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. The truce, brokered by Pakistan after weeks of escalating strikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, was designed to pause the fighting long enough for both sides to sit down in Islamabad and negotiate something more permanent. Unsurprisingly, markets reacted positively. The Dow surged more than 1,300 points on Wednesday, its best single-day gain since April 2025. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% and oil, which had been the war’s most volatile barometer, cratered more than 16% in a single session as traders priced in the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz might finally reopen.
But let’s be careful with the Dom Perignon. By Wednesday afternoon, Iran was accusing the U.S. of already violating the agreement. Israel said the ceasefire didn’t apply to its operations in Lebanon and continued bombing. Only a handful of ships passed through the Strait on Wednesday, the fewest of the week. And both sides released competing versions of the deal with conflicting terms, including a fundamental disagreement on whether Iran can enrich uranium. As one geopolitical strategist put it, this is a “fragile truce,” not a resolution. The market’s reaction was perhaps rational in the short term, but the foundation it’s standing on is anything but stable. We’ll see how the talks go in Islamabad this weekend, but for now, cautious optimism seems like the appropriate posture.
With so much happening at once, no single topic earned the deep dive this week. Instead, here are ten data points from the past month that stopped me mid-scroll. Some are about money, some about policy, and one is about Mississippi trying to bribe college athletes with tax breaks.
Grade = Incomplete. April is Financial Literacy Month, and as someone who’s been in schools recently teaching this subject (click here), it’s clear that personal finance education should be a priority. More than a third of American college students would give themselves a grade of “C” or worse when it comes to personal finance. These are young adults signing six-figure student loan agreements, opening their first credit cards, and making decisions that will compound for decades, and a significant portion of them know they’re not equipped to do it. The fact that we require four years of English but zero years of budgeting remains one of the great oversights of the American education system. (Source: WalletHub)
A Race to the Bottom (in a Good Way). Since 2020, 21 states have cut their top marginal income tax rate, while just 6 (DC, MD, MA, NM, NY, and WA) have raised theirs. The highest rates remain in California (13.3%), Hawaii (11%), and New York (10.9%). The trend is unmistakable: states are competing for residents and businesses by lowering the cost of living there. For anyone considering a move or wondering why your neighbor just relocated to Tennessee, this is the scoreboard. (Source: Tax Foundation)
Inherit-a-Home. Between sky-high home prices and the generous tax treatment of inherited property (the “step-up in basis”), a new path to homeownership is emerging in California. And that is to wait for someone to leave you one. Last year, 18% of all property transfers in the state, roughly 60,000 homes, were made through inheritance. That’s a record share going back to 1995 and more than double the national average of 8.8%. When buying a home becomes nearly impossible, inheriting one starts to look like a strategy. (Source: WSJ)
No Place Like Home. As someone who is lucky to have three of four grandparents still living (and living independently), this stat didn’t surprise me, but it’s worth stating out loud. When asked what they’d do if they could no longer live alone, 60% of U.S. adults said they’d prefer to stay in their home with a caregiver. Another 18% would choose assisted living, 11% would move in with a family member, and the rest would opt for other arrangements. The emotional attachment to home is powerful, and it has real financial implications for long-term care planning. If most people want to age in place, the conversation about how to fund that needs to start much earlier than it usually does. (Source: Pew Research)
Fears of the Fund Manager. In March, global fund managers surveyed by Bank of America increased their cash levels from 3.4% to 4.3%. That might not sound like much, but it was the largest monthly jump since COVID hit in March 2020. In addition to raising cash, these managers also increased their allocations to commodities (the highest since April 2022) while reducing U.S. equity exposure. (Source: MarketWatch)
All That Glitters. Gold rallied almost 21% in the first two months of the year, the strongest two-month start since 1975. Then, in the first half of March, it fell more than 12%, its worst start to a month since April 2013. If you’ve been reading our coverage, the whiplash in precious metals shouldn’t come as a surprise. As we noted in The Devil’s Metal earlier this year, parabolic moves tend to correct violently. Gold just offered another example. (Source: Bespoke)
Midterm Turbulence. In midterm election years since 1945, the S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough decline has been 18%, with at least a 10% decline occurring 70% of the time. In non-midterm years, the median decline has been just 10%, with a 10%+ drop occurring only 52% of the time. At the moment, this midterm year appears to be following the historical script. For long-term investors, the playbook hasn’t changed: expect the volatility, don’t react to it, and remember that good times follow the worst drawdowns. (Source: Bespoke)
Patience, Please. As oil and energy-related products surged in price over the past six weeks, inflation worries have pushed market expectations for Fed rate cuts further into the future. At the end of February, Fed Funds Futures were pricing in a full rate cut by July and 2.5 cuts for the rest of 2026. As of mid-March? The market isn’t fully pricing in another cut until December. Not only has the goalpost moved, but it’s been shifted to the other side of the field. (Source: CME FedWatch)
26 Years of Waiting. Wrapping up the March Madness NCAA basketball tournament this past Monday, Michigan topped UConn in a hard-fought contest that saw the Wolverines score under 90 points for the first time in their six tournament games. But the stat that stood out most? The victory ended a 26-year championship drought for the Big Ten, the longest active drought among high-major conferences. For a league with a winning tradition, that is a long time to go without cutting down the nets. (Source: CNBC, BetMGM)
The NIL Loophole. Mississippi has a state income tax of 4%, but apparently that’s still too much for college athletes. In an effort to attract more high-level talent to schools like Ole Miss and Mississippi State, the state’s House of Representatives passed a bill a few weeks ago that would make income earned through NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals completely tax-free. It’s a creative play in the arms race for athletic talent, and it raises a question that would have been unthinkable five years ago. Are states now competing on tax policy to recruit 19-year-old quarterbacks? They tried, but the Mississippi Senate Finance Committee squashed the bill, blocking it from becoming law. (Source: Forbes)
As I asked at the beginning, is this the end of the war in Iran, or are we just at halftime? Let’s hope we’re closer to the end than the beginning, but remember, no one knows. We find ourselves in one of those stretches where the news cycle moves faster than the markets can digest it. Ceasefires, rate expectations, mid-term volatility, all of it landing at once. But that’s exactly when discipline matters most. The situation in the Middle East is fluid, and so is everything else. Focus on what you can control, tune out what you can’t, and remember that clarity always comes eventually. It just rarely arrives on our preferred timeline.
Markets / Economy
- Markets rallied strongly after a two-week ceasefire was agreed to between the U.S. and Iran. The S&P finished the week up 3.6%, the Nasdaq up 4.7%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up 4.0%.
- Core PCE rose by 0.4% from the previous month in February, sustaining the 10-month high recorded over the previous two months.
- U.S. personal income fell by 0.1% MoM in February, following a 0.4% increase in January and defying expectations of a 0.3% rise.
- CPI jumped to 3.3% in March, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in February, however, figures were in line with forecasts.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.6% in March from 2.5% in the previous two months, slightly below market expectations.
Stocks
- U.S. equities were in positive territory. Technology and Industrials were the top performers, while Energy and Healthcare lagged. Growth stocks led value stocks, and large caps beat small caps.
- International equities closed higher for the week. Emerging markets fared better than developed markets.
Bonds
- The 10-year Treasury bond yield was flat on the week, holding at 4.32%.
- Global bond markets were in positive territory this week.
- High-yield bonds led for the week, followed by corporate bonds and government bonds.
